Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 28

544 
WTNT25 KNHC 310847
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
0900 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N  72.6W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N  72.6W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N  72.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.1N  74.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.5N  75.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.7N  77.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.9N  78.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.5N  79.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 29.5N  80.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 32.0N  80.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N  72.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory #23

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND A STRENGTHENING DORIAN…
Location: 23.3°N 68.4°W
Max sustained: 105 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb

000
WTNT35 KNHC 300254
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND A STRENGTHENING DORIAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 68.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Dorian.  Watches may be required for portions of this
area on Friday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 68.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday.  A west-northwestward
to westward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue
into the weekend.  On this track, Dorian should move over the
Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight
and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move
near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane
on Friday and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the
weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
data is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into early next week:

The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.
The northwestern Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...5 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the
next few days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NHC Atlantic Outlook

NHC Atlantic Outlook
Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Outlook Image

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form by Monday several
hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This system could develop into a
short-lived tropical or subtropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday
while moving northward or northeastward. Environmental conditions
are expected to become unfavorable for further development by
Wednesday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued
by 2 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Forecaster Blake

Zwei starke Zyklone Trevor und Veronica bedrohen Australien – Wetterkanal vom Kachelmannwetter-Team

Zwei starke Zyklone Trevor und Veronica bedrohen Australien von Fabian/ 21. März 2019/ Keine Kommentare

Derzeit bedrohen zwei starke Zyklone, also tropische Wirbelstürme den Norden von Australien. Zyklon TREVOR ist bereits an Land gegangen, wird sich aber über Wasser erneut verstärken und einen zweiten Landgang hinlegen. Zyklon VERONICA ist weiter westlich aktiv und wird im Norden von Western Australia an Land gehen. Beide Zyklone sind sehr gefährlich und können große Schäden durch heftigen Wind, eine Sturmflut und extreme Regenfälle anrichten.

Weiterlesen …

Quelle: Zwei starke Zyklone Trevor und Veronica bedrohen Australien – Wetterkanal vom Kachelmannwetter-Team

Erster Taifun des Jahres möglich – Wetterkanal vom Kachelmannwetter-Team

Erster Taifun des Jahres möglich

von Thomas Sävert/ 7. Februar 2018/ Keine Kommentare

Anders als auf dem Nordatlantik ist auf dem Nordwestpazifik das ganze Jahr hindurch Sturmsaison. Zwar treten auch hier die meisten tropischen Wirbelstürme im Sommer und Herbst auf, aber auch im Winter treten sie öfter mal auf.

Weiterlesen …

Quelle: Erster Taifun des Jahres möglich – Wetterkanal vom Kachelmannwetter-Team