Current ESTOFEX Convective Forecasts – ESTOFEX

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sun 29 Apr 2018 06:00 to Mon 30 Apr 2018 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 28 Apr 2018 18:33

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued across E-France, extreme W-Germany and Luxembourg for large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive rainfall and an isolated tornado event.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 with similar risks but lower probabilities.

A level 1 was issued across far E-Czech-Republic, far S-Poland, parts of Hungary and Slovakia for isolated large hail, excessive rainfall and an isolated tornado event.

A level 1 was issued for NW-Italy mainly for excessive rain.

Weiterlesen …

Quelle: Current ESTOFEX Convective Forecasts – ESTOFEX

Current ESTOFEX Convective Forecasts – ESTOFEX

Extended Forecast Valid: Sun 29 Apr 2018 06:00 to Mon 30 Apr 2018 06:00 UTC

Issued: Fri 27 Apr 2018 14:58

Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

A level 1 was issued across for tornadoes, hail, very heavy rainfall and wind gusts across Northeast France, Luxembourg, East Belgium, West Germany and Southeast Netherlands.

Weiterlesen …

Quelle: Current ESTOFEX Convective Forecasts – ESTOFEX

Current ESTOFEX Convective Forecasts – ESTOFEX

Storm ForecastValid: Sun 22 Apr 2018 06:00 to Mon 23 Apr 2018 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 21 Apr 2018 21:32

Forecaster: TUSCHY

Numerous level 1s were issued for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts (Spain/E-Netherlands/N-Germany), isolated large hail (N-France) and heavy rain (Alps).

Weiterlesen …

Quelle: Current ESTOFEX Convective Forecasts – ESTOFEX

Current ESTOFEX Convective Forecasts – ESTOFEX

Storm Forecast Valid: Thu 18 Jan 2018 06:00 to Fri 19 Jan 2018 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 18 Jan 2018 00:11

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued across eastern France, northern Switzerland, southern Germany mainly for severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued across southern Turkey into Syria mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.

Weiterlesen …

Quelle: Current ESTOFEX Convective Forecasts – ESTOFEX

Current ESTOFEX Convective Forecasts – ESTOFEX – Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion

Valid: Wed 17 Jan 2018 07:00 to Wed 17 Jan 2018 15:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 17 Jan 2018 07:41Forecaster: PUCIK

DISCUSSION

Ahead of a fast moving mid tropospheric trough, a synoptic scale ascent, together with cooling around 500 hPa results in steepening lapse rates and marginal CAPE build up. 00 UTC soundings confirm lapse rates around 7 K/km over much of the region. As of now, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As 850 hPa flow reaches 20 to 25 m/s, 0-1 km bulk shear will be on the order of 10 – 15 m/s. In such conditions, an isolated event of a tornado or severe wind gust can not be ruled out. Small hail will also accompany any storm. Threat will gradually shift towards SE and will be largely over by 15 UTC as the trough crosses the Alpine range.Creative Commons License

Quelle: Current ESTOFEX Convective Forecasts – ESTOFEX